Analysis: Afghanistan – An Actual Safe Haven – Part I

Published Global Affairs / Dec 2017?

The longest war is going according to plan; but whose plan exactly?

Not Washington - bogged down in a never-ending nightmare. Or Kabul - besieged and battered, barely holding its head above water. Not Pakistan, a frontline state suffering blowback and living under the weight of America’s expectations - and uncalled for accusations. The dramatic shifts in the geostrategic dynamics are not reflected in Washington’s stance towards Islamabad nor are they inclined towards the multiplayer great game unfolding in the backdrop with Russians, Iranians, Taliban, Indians, Chinese, ISIS and its Coalition forces.

Mission Rebuild Afghanistan

In the backdrop are nations used as pawns to keep Cold War allies or emergent threats in check. On the side are non-state actors wielded as weapons to thwart ambitions and counter bigger threats like ISIS. And at the centre is a strategy that offers a patchwork quilt of something old, something new, something borrowed to stabilize the fragile foundations of their South Asian outpost and force Taliban to the negotiating table or put them six feet under, whichever comes first. But a decisive victory is nowhere in sight though rebuilding efforts appear to be progressing according to schedule.


Security Challenges facing Trump’s Afghan War

Western analysts point to Taliban seeking alternate sanctuaries and forging profitable alliances with new friends and former foes. They debate the extent of covert support given by vested interests and foreign powers. American interests in Afghanistan are not threatened by ‘Pakistan’s failure to act against safe havens’ narrative.

Iran and Russia’s covert ties with Taliban, investments coming in from China, India, or Iran and Kabul’s changing fortunes however do impact their exit strategy. While the West refers to a black and white palette, the gray hues define the true state of affairs and should be used to assess the trajectory of the longest war.

An examination of these unorthodox pairings explores the intricate pathways forged in the shadows and the ensemble cast operating in the region that will ultimately take the lead in Kabul’s story and determine its destiny. Once the regional rivalries in play, partnerships of convenience and hostile agendas are factored in the end game, a different picture emerges.

World Wide Web of Intrigue

These labyrinthine networks must be prominently displayed in Coalition war rooms – and mapping inhospitable terrains may already on the high command’s to do list even if they do not figure in their policy statements strangely fixated on Pakistan. Sorting through them allows the uninitiated to grapple with the shifting sands of Afghan politics, along with some truly bizarre unions and start looking beyond oversimplified explanations offered for public consumption.

The Man in Charge

Afterwards they would wonder, exactly who is in-charge. Is it the NATO based military strategists huddled in war rooms, American diplomats and state department reps unable to venture out of Afghanistan’s not so safe zones; old benefactors who propped up the Taliban regime way back when; foreign investors with stakes in the region, sworn enemies of Taliban who once ousted their regime, ISIS - keeping both Taliban, Kabul and the U.S on the run and Pakistani forces engaged in the badlands or the Taliban, forcing superpowers to open back channels of communication and engage in covert negotiations?

Multiplayer Covert Wars

Russian influence over their abandoned outpost hasn’t been ruled out. Reports keep surfacing of Moscow caught wooing Taliban to counteract ISIS and maybe get even for Soviet Union’s ignominious withdrawal. While Russia explores investment opportunities cementing its regional foothold, India also seeks economic inroads to widen its influence and joins Iran accused of arming and funding Taliban who go on to target American forces. And Chinese investments are coming in fast showing how stability and development appears to be their sole endgame while control seems to be on everyone’s collective agenda.

Islamabad maintains that it has out grown its safe havens, has no influence on Taliban to come to the negotiating table, zero interests in seeing Afghanistan meet its failed state prophesy and no strategic depth to fall back on when things go south. Of the four, they are also the only nation thus far to have successfully fought a counterinsurgency within their cities and tribal areas, are still occupied with battling with demons (foreign / domestic) and would argue that they also have no time, patience, energy, resources to engage in foreign misadventures.

Since they have amassed sizeable experience in the field and are the only ones who helped the U.S navigate Afghanistan’s treacherous terrain as Cold War allies, they could have been their best hope. Now they pursue their own path of economic independence and domestic stability that may converge at some point with South Asia’s prosperity dream.

Tehran’s Proxy Network

Iran, a Shiite state is no friend of misguided Sunni jihadists; it once helped the US overthrow Taliban regime in 2001. Its Revolutionary Guards reportedly fund their sworn enemy now. Iran’s Chabahar Port finally operational with first consignment of Indian wheat destined for Kabul hailed as a game changer must be added to this problematic equation.

The inauguration of a new trade to Kabul via Iran and bankrolled by India casts the Iran-India alliance as a vital piece in ‘Mission Rebuild Afghanistan’. For now it allows India to bypass Pakistan and Iran to look towards Russia as a trading partner. Iran can use this to claim it is on the side of the angels. Dig a little deeper and one finds their tentacles in the Afghan pie as far back as 2008, when a British interpreter to a NATO General was reportedly caught spying for Tehran.

The recently released Bin Laden papers, found in the Abbottabad raid (2011) reveal links between al Qaeda and Tehran. “A never-before-seen 19-page document purportedly written by a senior member of al-Qaeda details an arrangement between Iran and members of the group to strike American interests in Saudi Arabia and the Gulf." Extending that cooperation to Taliban is not outside the realm of possibility especially since the Afghan Taliban Mullah Mansour killed by drone inside Pakistan earlier in 2016 was reportedly returning from Iran.

Perhaps Tehran would also like to settle scores with Washington and secure its interests in one fell swoop. It may explain this anomaly and the presence of Taliban’s office in Iran’s Zahedan, and Iranian commandos reportedly among the dead in the infamous siege of Farah led by Taliban. Besides funding, Iran reportedly provided recruits from among the Afghan refugees based within its borders. This makes them key to Afghanistan’s unraveling even as they pose as its saviors.

The investments, conferences, and failed peace initiatives show how the fate of a landlocked, war ravaged piece of land remains at the top of regional priorities. Ironically, the ones responsible for Kabul’s misfortunes and Washington’s misery can also be found deeply invested in securing its future.

The Red are Coming Again

The ones who do wield power over Taliban, the ones providing support and competing for their attention are likely to use that power as leverage when the time comes since more than one actor holds the Trump card. Perhaps it comes in handy when safe passage is needed for Kabul bound convoys from Iran carrying Indian exports thought to be in danger of being attacked by insurgents. Or when stories of intel-sharing on a quid pro quo basis with Russia and Taliban surface that pit a rag tag army against a common foe - ISIS and at the same time arm them against the state and derail peace treaties.

While Moscow’s interests are ostensibly meant to keep ISIS on the back-foot and their arch-nemesis on their toes, they also upgraded AAF to keep Taliban at bay.

Combat Zones as Prized Real Estate?

In its current state Afghanistan is far from being an investment magnet yet the money pouring in implies confidence in its future. As the Chinese backed CPEC took off, Pakistan’s security showed a marked improvement and the region stabilized but it was because of massive investments in COIN operations, round the clock vigilance and a drastic change in Islamabad’s demeanor and foreign policy. There was also a clear eyed approach post Dec 16, 2014, no longer torn between appeasement and targeted strikes to curb militancy.

What gives investors such confidence given Afghanistan’s freefall, with desertion in the ranks, chaos in the streets and vengeance on the enemies mind? Unless they expect that this prized real estate would eventually fall into their hands and with a pliant Taliban more willing to talk to them, an arrangement could be finally reached to the satisfaction of all?

By arming, funding, enabling the enemy – all these elements have staked their claim on Kabul and now bide their time.

Perils of Mission Creep

And while the West looks in vain for sanctuaries in Pakistan, Afghanistan emerges as the biggest safe haven for ISIS and Taliban; decked with Tehran’s ambitions, offset by Putin’s master strokes and the dragon’s precious OBOR projects in the pipeline. It may soon outgrow its reputation as the ‘graveyard of empires’ and emerge as a retreat for the final trio left standing. Once the American shift is over, without having set foot officially, these three would have their official victory dance. An article argued that should the U.S pack up and leave, the temporary alliances driven by a common objective would fall at the seams leading to turf wars between the remaining members.

Kabul - a supporting actor in its own story

Even as Kabul attempts to carve its unique path and forge a new identity, it is unlikely to break out of the orbit and would still have foreign powers dictating the terms of its recovery and charting the course of its progress. Americans with their massive investments in overhauling the security infrastructure having bypassed the initial agenda of nation building and revenge – now compete with regional power players in retaining Kabul’s affections and cementing their own legacy. The recent slight directed at India referring to the billions spent on them and demanding a bigger role in the development of Afghanistan in return may have a larger purpose.

Washington, if and when it withdraws may expect Delhi to be its eyes and ears to keep a watch over Moscow and Tehran given India’s close relations with both. Will American mercenaries wearing Afghan colors, who have been rejected on paper, also be left behind to keep order and bring chaos when needed?

Whether these new players come in the role of a joint peacekeeping force ostensibly to safeguard their investments, keep a watchful eye on their former collaborators or prefer to assume an advisory role, South Asia will remain preoccupied with some form of the great game for the foreseeable future.

ISIS – Terrorism beyond borders vs. Taliban

Because all the stakeholders are united against ISIS, it allows some wiggle room and time to ascertain areas of cooperation. Unlike the Taliban vying for control of its former stronghold and restoring their sad empire to its former glory; ISIS – the new entrant has set its sights higher and subscribes to the ‘terrorism beyond borders’ philosophy elevating the threat level. Given all the jostling for Taliban’s attention, these insurgents unfortunately emerge as central figures in this fiasco. Even though Taliban gets funded to fight Daesh, it recruits from among Taliban ranks raising questions about how much Iran, Russian sponsored firepower ends up in the hands of the very enemy they hope to vanquish?

Islamabad’s new take on the Taliban

If the Taliban have an edge in this war, it is not because of Islamabad. They cannot seek recruits because of border fencing and check-posts; or melt away in the refugee camps because of the reparation process underway; they cannot wander the streets due to military operations and they will probably not overlook Pakistan’s alignment with the U.S. – regardless of its shaky foundations. Also, their increasing disillusionment, according to the NY Times and sense of betrayal due to the targeting of Mullah Mansour that made them pack up and abandon Pakistan testifies to their present frame of mind.

Nevertheless Pakistan’s place in the usual suspect list remains unchallenged and while it may seem like there is no end in sight – but someone has already set the financial ball rolling; because the war is going according to their plan.