US-Pak Relations - Skewed Perspectives, Misplaced Priorities, Shared Objectives

Published in Global Affairs / Nov 2017

Pakistan once allied with the U.S. against the Soviet bloc and hailed as a strategic asset may be tempted to rehash the past to underscore the importance of an alliance forged decades ago – one that continues to be in play. It may still recall how they stood as a bulwark against communism, built robust civil-military partnerships and a solid cooperation platform. A mutually beneficial relationship that strengthened Pakistan’s defense, and reinforced America’s might delivered results.

Pages of history can be illuminating but in order to battle hostile agendas and navigate complex terrains, to comprehend changing realities and devise realistic strategies, expectations must be tempered. While the immense toll it took to achieve the hard fought domestic stability speaks volumes about Pakistan’s track record in counter-terror, it is not what concerns superpowers desperate for dignified exit strategies, and dealing with a rag tag army of Afghans vs. organized mercenary forces that threaten the world.

The longest war has exacerbated the wedge and reminders of past glories cannot undo the damage. Haqqanis, jihadists, and sanctuaries top the list of grievances while a deeper game that perhaps seeks to checkmate China occupy corridors of power in Capitol Hill.

The ghosts of past resurrected one more time can only show how a convergence of interests kept relations between a superpower and a rookie partner on an even keel. A look at the overall record reinforces how a monetary value cannot be put on the losses incurred by a frontline state since 2001. The world may appear to belittle Pakistan’s war efforts and discount its sacrifices – but that same counter-insurgency expertise and social reform drives will determine Islamabad’s worth.

From Communism to Terrorism – A long history of cooperation and neglect

The true nature of a long standing affiliation now revealed as more of a business deal gone south than a union built to last explains why Sec Def Mattis declares intentions to work with Pakistan one more time, in a way that sounds more like a grudging admission - a concession, a favor instead of a necessity. Something likely fueled by the realization that solo acts cannot beat quagmires like Afghanistan.

Somewhere between dealing with communism and terrorism the team fell apart - though avenues of cooperation left unexplored can still unify and defer Trump’s ‘tough talking Lieutenants’ headed to Islamabad from endangering the overarching mission and undermining Pakistan’s position and innumerable contributions.

Pillars of New Approach

When public-shaming is a norm and withholding aid, a go to power move – a revival of the spirit of cooperation and resolve sorely needed to take the fight to ISIS and prevent Afghanistan from falling into ruin cannot turn to the Pak-US greatest hits from the archives for several reasons. Framed against the Cold War backdrop, open secrets like Pakistan’s nuclear ambitions or dictators usurping democracy were not considered deal breakers - Cowboys engaged in proxy wars by funding mujaheedins bound for Kabul to put a spanner in a Soviet inspired great game or setting up camp in the midst of sensitive installations in Peshawar didn’t raise eyebrows.

But when the same neighborhood became a staging post for 50 intelligence agencies and superior firepower, when Pakistan turned into a battleground fighting for its survival as a wave of terrorism threatened to flatten the land and a conventional fighting force was thrust into full-fledged counterinsurgency warfare without the expertise, resources or roadmap to handle an unseen enemy, the dynamics shifted, relations floundered and deals fell apart.

Finding a competent guide to help navigate ISIS infested waters

16 years on, having mastered the steep learning curve, Pakistan accepted the responsibility of manning a porous border with its numerous hidey holes, and watched the officer to soldier casualty ratio mount with each passing day, sports and tourism disappear, its economic dreams crumble while TTP, Al Qaeda morphed into ISIS and the global focus shifted to terrorism. As the nation gradually took back control of its cities and rebuilt communities, initiated reforms and started the tedious de-radicalization process to save impressionable youth, and emerged from the shadows – the world would hesitate to acknowledge the transformation or publicly endorse its achievements. Whether they have lingering doubts about Pakistan’s sincerity or believe pressure points and leverage to keep allies in line make for a better strategy is up for debate.

Bridging Divides in Unchartered Territory

PR may not be Pakistan’s strongest suit and building bridges in such acrimonious conditions is harder when the narrative war hasn’t been mastered. Or when a rapid deterioration of Afghanistan’s security despite a multinational fighting force became a hunt for scapegoats and discovery of Bin Laden’s hideout left a question mark on Islamabad’s credibility. And as Pakistan’s loss of control of its territories was interpreted as a colossal failure of governance and raised concerns regarding its nuclear arsenal. These seemingly insurmountable challenges and policy failures would take centre-stage and disregard hard won successes and Islamabad’s concerns about a lack of coordination that allowed terror outfits dislodged from the tribal belt to escape ISAF’s eagle eyes in Afghanistan.

Based on the confidence of Chinese investors engaged in long term projects, Russia’s advances and the state of famed no go areas like Waziristan now used to host sporting events where the media was reportedly offered their pick of locations and logistical support to head off and explore and see for themselves the lack of so called sanctuaries, Pakistan feels it must forge an identity befitting its geostrategic importance.

Image Rehabilitation

There is a change of direction in its approach and a new found dignity visible in its demeanor. One that is unafraid of owning past mistakes and delivers tangible results in the counter-insurgency arena. That now asks for coordinated actions against Haqqani groups and seeks relations based on equal footing. That has a growing network of allies and an actual blueprint for economic prosperity. That is no longer drawn by the lure of dollars & cents; though withholding the Coalition Support Fund hinders their collective war efforts. Despite the posturing and belligerence, references to billions in aid, occasional yells of double dealing – it is the indisputable value both sides reap that keeps the alliance afloat - for now.

Cold War Allies in Adversarial Roles

The past may not offer guidelines about dealing with current hostilities but it does provide context about unlikely pairings. It shows how it wasn’t always perfect, but survived due to expedience - both sides made compromises for the sake of the greater good. Allowing U2 pilots the use of its base endangered Pakistan’s neutrality and security and put them in Soviet’s gun sights. Feigning ignorance of Pakistan’s nuclear ambitions secured US interests, kept the aid flowing and CIA operations in play. That visual while revealing can no longer be used to argue for the same concessions on either side. The increased frequency of official trips however would imply a reluctance to push relations to the point of no return. It is enough to inspire some confidence.