Analysis: Fallout from BRICS

Published by Global Affairs? / Oct 2017

Written Early Sept 2017

Admittedly, it is an unusual sight - China scrambling to issue clarifications and placate its closest ally in the aftermath of the BRICS Summit. China does not make foreign policy blunders, dictate strategy or put its stamp on statements without reading the fine print. Neither does it subscribe to the cowboy style - public shaming, threats, excessive use of carrots / sticks, blackmail – bluster. Yet the declaration issued at the BRICS annual summit held at Xiamen that singled out Pakistan based terror groups led to an ‘et tu China’ moment and saw Beijing in ‘damage control mode’.

To review what led to this dramatic break from tradition means that China’s perspective be considered and Pakistan’s attempts at extricating itself from a tangled web of proxies be factored in the narrative alongside its successes and failures, to balance the scales.

It may also be a good time to commence image / nation building efforts with mandatory soul searching that could prevent an encore of the BRICS performance now being framed as a big win for Modi’s diplomacy, a betrayal by a trusted ally, a direct hit on the famed Pak-China friendship and a colossal failure of Islamabad’s foreign policy.

Exhibit A in the Case against Pakistan

Trump’s Afghan policy was an expected blow to Pak-US relations – being blindsided by the BRICS declaration indicates that there is work to be done - not because Pakistan offers safe havens but because of the implication that it still does. And also, because any statement endorsed by an ally unlikely to be swayed by Indian propaganda, or Western paranoia will inevitably carry weight. Since isolation and complicity is a theme that resonates with a global audience – such statements are bound to make a splash.

But why is the view from Beijing’s vantage point so bleak given that they have the best seats to observe Pakistan’s counter terrorism efforts – their projects are under the supervision and protection of Pak military and their citizens can wander the streets and haggle with local vendors in relative safety.

It is important to trace the root of this so called anomaly and try to get into the mind of the Dragon. It is equally vital to know if Pakistan has just discovered the limits of China’s seemingly boundless friendship. And how Islamabad intends to counter the sudden surge of distrust now that the BRICS declaration is being presented as ‘Exhibit A’ in the case against Pakistan?

The Challenges on the Road to Recovery

Ideally, there should be no cause for friction in the Sino-Pak strategic vision – both seek a security cooperation platform and vie for economic prosperity. If the narrative that there is no official patronage of proxies is intact, why the lingering doubts?

How credible are these fears? And has Pakistan been able to successfully head off radical movements in its backyard or successfully projected the challenges it now faces in rolling back Cold war era programs, enforcing Madrassah reforms, shuttering sanctuaries and rehabilitating its flock of black sheep. Preventing offshoots of non-state actors from going rogue when ISIS comes a calling for recruits and decides to absorb groups hardwired for jihad into their cadres poses a real threat. And if Pakistan is perceived as mainstreaming extremism, it will have a tough time convincing anyone that doing so it is not state policy.

For the newly minted Pakistani FM to own the past, and refer to putting ones house in order is the right play - for the Defense Minister to reject the statement outright may be a tad hasty. Perhaps they wonder if everyone is reading too much into a piece of paper. Is it really as big a deal as it is being made out to be since Pakistan has denounced terrorism in all its manifestations and is presumably on the same page as the rest of the world? Why then is agreeing to include the mention of LeT and JeM seen as an ambush though they are banned and have put Pakistan in danger of becoming a pariah state on more than one occasion? Also, how is it that the possibility of their being used as a tool remains alive, despite assurances, operations, sacrifices and reformation drives?

The Optics that threaten the Narrative

Are China’s actions prompted by a need to know that stray jihadists are not on the back burner – to believe that banned outfits cannot get funding under the guise of a charitable organization? To be convinced that LeT and its ilk can no longer run for office simply by changing their company logo or get photographed with sitting interior Ministers - lead rallies with an MPA in tow - raise funds using Rohingya as a front, because such makeovers fool no one, least of all stakeholders with 62 billion dollars on the table. If Pakistan’s partners remain worried for its future then bad optics can take some of the blame - the time and effort taken to uproot the nexus may take the rest.

The Strings attached to CPEC

China’s investments in CPEC may have brought them closer to Pakistan but it also means that stakes are higher and so are expectations. Are they are merely preempting a resurgence of strategic depth though there is no indication that it survived post 9/11, because Beijing cannot afford to have any conflagration traced back to Pakistan and have their commercial ventures affected? This in no way suggests that Pakistan has not done enough to secure said investments and put everything on the line for the sake of regional harmony. It does mean that in the eyes of the world and its allies, perhaps it has yet to make that grand gesture that signals a clean break from the past.

International Relations in the Age of BRICS

What would such a gesture look like? Pakistan may well ask why it needs to prove its sincerity when the neighboring nations are fanning the flames of extremism to torch regional peace efforts and development plans. It would be a valid observation. India’s brush with fanaticism does not threaten to upend Western ideals as yet - Indians appear to have ignored the lessons of keeping a live wire in the basement and have no qualms about putting their society on a collision course. It is worth noting that not including Indian covert ops in conjunction with destabilizing tactics in Balochistan perhaps implies China does not put much stock in India’s ability to do lasting damage to their interests, or has faith in its soft powers to put them in their place.

While Pakistan finds itself battling multiple fronts, success rates cannot be gauged simply by downgrading the threat levels and upping the counter-terrorism operations. It would also require a continuation of the difficult and dangerous process of detangling radical elements from the social fabric – something Radd-ul-Fassad aims to accomplish with time - something the presence of banned groups undermines on a daily basis and enemies exploit on every international forum.