Afrah Jamal

Published Jan 2018? CPEC, doomed to failure, – Kashmir, a raging hotbed of terrorists; the spy caught red handed - a kidnap victim and Islamabad - one step shy of earning the state sponsor of terrorism label. While Pakistan, viewed from the Indian perspective appears to fulfill all the criteria for a rogue nation, India, in the Western eyes looks benign – a paragon of democracy and a champion of human rights. It is anything but. A look at major headlines from both sides’ attempts to reconcile the Indian states’ carefully crafted image of objectivity with reality and debunk the myths peddled ad-nauseum. As the process examines Indian biases that are determined to seek out chinks in the Pak- China relationship and represent CPEC as a threat – that conflate the struggle in Kashmir with global terrorism while projecting failed attempts at cross-border intrusions from their end as successful surgical strikes on Pakistan and goes on to dress the Indian spymaster’s predicament in humani...

Published Global Village Space / Nov 2017? The upgraded version of Afghan policy released in August 2017 was followed by US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson’s visit to the region in October. The stopover was unannounced - the location classified and the meeting lasted 2 hours. There was confusion whether it was held at Kabul in some government office or Bagram airbase in a fortified bunker. The state of insecurity may be behind the subterfuge. Soon after the Taliban attacked an army base killing many Afghan soldiers justifying the paranoia. There had been six attacks the week before. More were to follow. The Taliban observe the surges and withdrawals - and adapt, while upping the ante . Nothing changes. Their confidence is unnerving given Kabul’s fortunes are changing for the better at least on the surface and the state seeks a new role for a war ravaged nation. Afghanistan is now a member of Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB). Additional firepower and military mig...

Published in Global Village Space / Nov 2017? Pakistan and Afghanistan have history. And it is not all good. They have a shared border – though its legality has been contested. They also managed to forge a united front against the Soviets and achieved the impossible. It is a rare moment of solidarity and teamwork. The final round of the Cold War fought in the badlands of Afghanistan altered the timeline since then and as the Afghan state veered off course – the impact was felt on neighboring nations. It led to an influx of Afghan refugees in Pakistan, the emergence of Taliban, the fracturing of the Afghan socio-political structure and opened a breach in the global security. All this is in the past. Pakistan and Afghanistan may have been brothers in arms with shared borders and traditions and historical ties, but despite their time spent in the trenches, Pakistan’s economic value as a trade portal for a landlocked region or its place as host to millions of refugees and the bigg...

Published Global Affairs / Dec 2017? The longest war is going according to plan; but whose plan exactly? Not Washington - bogged down in a never-ending nightmare. Or Kabul - besieged and battered, barely holding its head above water. Not Pakistan, a frontline state suffering blowback and living under the weight of America’s expectations - and uncalled for accusations. The dramatic shifts in the geostrategic dynamics are not reflected in Washington’s stance towards Islamabad nor are they inclined towards the multiplayer great game unfolding in the backdrop with Russians, Iranians, Taliban, Indians, Chinese, ISIS and its Coalition forces. Mission Rebuild Afghanistan In the backdrop are nations used as pawns to keep Cold War allies or emergent threats in check. On the side are non-state actors wielded as weapons to thwart ambitions and counter bigger threats like ISIS. And at the centre is a strategy that offers a patchwork quilt of something old, something new, something borrow...

Published in Global Affairs / Nov 2017 Pakistan once allied with the U.S. against the Soviet bloc and hailed as a strategic asset may be tempted to rehash the past to underscore the importance of an alliance forged decades ago – one that continues to be in play. It may still recall how they stood as a bulwark against communism, built robust civil-military partnerships and a solid cooperation platform. A mutually beneficial relationship that strengthened Pakistan’s defense, and reinforced America’s might delivered results. Pages of history can be illuminating but in order to battle hostile agendas and navigate complex terrains, to comprehend changing realities and devise realistic strategies, expectations must be tempered. While the immense toll it took to achieve the hard fought domestic stability speaks volumes about Pakistan’s track record in counter-terror, it is not what concerns superpowers desperate for dignified exit strategies, and dealing with a rag tag army of Afghans vs...

Published Sep 2017/ Global Affairs Written a few weeks before the new Afghan Policy was rolled out ‘The road to Afghanistan peace does not lie in Kabul’ by Rahmatullah Nabil and Melissa Skorka (Reuters – 12 July 2017) considers the political side of the equation, to bring stability to the region. That part makes some sense given the fact that boots on the ground have failed to deliver results and a lack of consensus has taken a serious toll on Pak-US relations. It also fixates on Islamabad as the root cause of all their earthly woes and considers taking a tougher stand towards their ‘reluctant ally’ in the hopes of turning the tide in this protracted war. That part makes less sense. The change in policy direction is predicated upon assumptions that Haqqani's still use Pakistan as their base of operations. Islamabad’s reputation of using proxies continues to dictate U.S based policy-makers actions despite the changing security paradigm and emergence of a new pecking order. M...

Published in Global Village Space / Aug 2017 True to its reality show inspired template, the Afghan strategy was rolled out after months of speculations, suspense and dithering. It used memorable taglines and inflated figures. ‘Agents of chaos’, sunk costs described as ‘billions and billions’ and going all in seeking victory against all odds. It offered to be tough on Pakistan, even as it was vague on the outlines and predictable in its deployment. Reading between the Lines This is essentially the new, improvised policy meant not just for Afghanistan but also Pakistan and India. With it the U.S. administration appears to have heeded the advice of keeping the enemy in the dark. They have also dismissed the necessity of keeping their allies close and have instead embarked upon a strategic vision that aims to expand the theatre adding India to the volatile mix and potentially widen the gulf between allies. Yet it is not the public performance of the commander-in-chief that catch...

Some Flaws in the Master Plan Published in Global Village Space - 27 Jul 2017 The master plan chalked out in a piece, ‘Calling Pakistan’s Bluff’ by Whitney Kassel and Philip Reiner in Foreign Affairs (14 July, 2017) came laden with glaring flaws. And not just because it decided to present some decidedly soggy looking carrots paired with far too many sticks that threatened to expand U.S. boots on the grounds while pacifying Pak leadership with a limited supply of shiny new military hardware. The pros and cons of such an approach have also been explored by the writers but the overarching theme appeared to support such a move. The piece can now be seen in tandem with recent attempts to strong arm Pakistan by the U.S. Congress that call for curbs on military aid among other things. Some of it has already come to pass with 50 million dollars reimbursement held back from the Coalition Support Fund because Pentagon doesn’t feel enough has been done to justify the hefty price tag. N...

Published by Global Affairs / July 2017 In the aftermath of the deadly attacks in a diplomatic enclave and a funeral, Afghanistan’s fate now hangs in the balance, while experts mull over the merits of potential troop surges and worry about the endemic corruption, plummeting morale and ensuing chaos. Afghan President Ghani’s statement that his nation suffers from an ‘undeclared war of aggression from Pakistan’ delivered at Kabul Process meeting sums up the problem. Interestingly, a week before, he expressed the exact same sentiment – only the words were ‘ undeclared war of aggression from non-state actors .’ Later his Twitter feed regurgitated the passive aggressive plea from the speech that by turns call for dialogue and apportions blame to its neighbors . What is it that Pakistan wants is the question foremost in his mind. He also wonders what the Taliban want . The first question is easily answered. The Pak Army COAS wants Afghanistan to look inwards. Probably at the ...

Published Global Affairs / March 2017. Written in August 2016. They say that ‘the Taliban are coming to Islamabad’ was a common refrain among some diplomatic circles. They cannot be faulted for having such a stark worldview. From 2007 onwards the region registered a dramatic spike in terror and the world feared for the integrity of a nuclear armed nation in the face of a rapidly deteriorating law and order situation. Some might argue that now that Pakistan has finally taken the war to the enemy within, a modicum of peace seems to have descended. Zarb-e-Azb, classified as a full scale operation against terrorists of all shades and denominations enters its third year. And a prominent name linked to JuD is finally under arrest. Tracking battlefront gains can be tricky since the operations are still ongoing. There have been rough patches along the way. And the nation suffered tragic setbacks with devastating attacks on police academies, shrines and hospitals . Back home the mi...

Published in Global Affairs / March 2017. Written / Sep 2016 . Third world nations that remain daggers drawn have yet to ascend to that stage of nirvana marked by regional cooperation and economic reforms; the kind that defines Sino - US relations for instance. Former US ambassador to China described their emerging relationship as “controlled enmity.” It had remained on course despite Washington’s concerns over the militarization of South China Sea, or indictment of Chinese hackers by a US court. The world’s biggest economy and the largest US foreign creditor and the superpower had learnt to prioritize and steer their relations towards a semblance of normality. No one really knows which direction they will take under a Donald Trump Presidency. But economic considerations trumped personal differences at the time. And now judging from the list of banned nations devised by the White House where some obvious names have been pointedly left out – at least for the time being, it still ...